Tariffs May Drop. Inventory Decisions Just Got Harder, Not Easier.

The Supreme Court just rewired the tariff picture, and the biggest operational risk isn’t what tariffs do next, it’s what shippers do while they wait to find out.

Most people hear “tariff relief” and assume supply chain relief. That’s not how it plays out on the ground.

When landed-cost math becomes uncertain, purchasing slows, then snaps. Inbound gets re-timed. Warehouses take the hit.

Policy may change overnight. Inventory still needs a place to land.

What changed, and why it matters operationally

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, striking down a major set of IEEPA-based tariffs, including the sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs applied broadly across countries.

The business takeaway is not “tariffs are gone.” It’s that we’ve entered a transition period where importers are trying to plan around three unknowns at once: what tariffs get replaced under other authorities, how quickly changes hit the border, and what the refund path looks like for duties already paid. Even in the reporting today, the refund process is described as potentially cumbersome and litigious.

That uncertainty is what creates complexity for inventory decisions.

Why “tariff relief” can increase planning complexity

Here’s what we see in real operating cycles when policy shifts quickly: procurement teams hesitate to commit at yesterday’s landed cost, finance wants to protect cash, sales wants inventory “just in case,” and transportation schedules can’t pause the ocean.

So the same marketplace can produce two opposite behaviors at the same time, some importers delay POs, others accelerate orders, and both behaviors create volatility for warehousing.

In the near term, lower import costs (or even the expectation of lower import costs) can trigger:

· delayed purchasing decisions while teams wait for clarity

· re-timing of inbound freight (sliding sailings, shifting ports, changing dray plans)

·  short-term surge ordering when a window appears “safe”

·  rebalancing of safety stock (reduce to free cash, or increase to hedge uncertainty)

Those four moves all land in the same place: space volatility, labor volatility, and dock volatility.

The warehouse becomes the shock absorber

When inbound timing gets choppy, warehousing stops being a static cost and becomes a control point.

Space volatility shows up first. A week of delayed receipts doesn’t “save” you space, it creates a gap, then a pile-up. If multiple importers re-time at once, you don’t get a smooth curve. You get Tuesday receiving that looks like peak week.

Labor volatility is next. Receiving is not just unloading. It’s counts, exceptions, relabeling, QC holds, putaway, and re-slotting when the product mix shifts. When the inbound calendar swings, labor plans swing with it. The result is either overtime and congestion, or understaffing and missed windows.

Dock volatility finishes the story. Appointments compress, carriers reschedule, and live unload becomes the default when yards fill or drop space runs out. The dock becomes the pressure valve for policy uncertainty.

This is why the “tariff relief” narrative misses the operational reality: the period between policy shift and operational clarity is where networks get stressed.

A quick scenario you can feel this week

AP’s live coverage captured a detail that’s very familiar to logistics teams: an importer talking about goods already moving, airfreight arriving next week and a container docking the following Friday, while still wondering how long it will take to unwind the tariff situation.

That’s the operational truth. Even when headlines change, your freight doesn’t stop. And when freight is already committed, your decision becomes: where do we land it, how fast can we receive it, and what happens if the next two weeks swing the other direction?

What Inland Star is built for in moments like this

Policy shifts are outside our control. Execution isn’t.

Inland Star is designed to operate in the messy middle, when inbound timing is uncertain, but service expectations don’t move. That means flexible warehousing options (multi-client or dedicated), disciplined receiving and scan-verified handling, and the value-added work that shows up when plans change: cross-docking, labeling, kitting, and returns processing. Inland Star is also 100% employee-owned (ESOP), and we run EHS³ safety protocols because volatility is exactly when standards get tested. Do It Right®.

When import patterns shift, a bi-coastal footprint helps, too. Having capacity in California and Pennsylvania gives operators options for inventory placement and rebalancing, especially when inbound schedules get re-timed.

What smart operators do next (short, practical)

Don’t overhaul your network on day one. Do tighten your playbook:

1) Re-forecast inbound by scenario (base / delayed / surge) and assign “landing space” for each.

2) Pre-negotiate overflow rules: where volume goes, what triggers the shift, and who approves it.

3) Lock receiving appointment discipline for the next 30 days, because docks fail before storage does.

4) Decide your safety stock posture by SKU criticality, not by gut feel.

5) Review labeling / compliance requirements now, because rework spikes during policy-driven reshuffles.

6) Ensure your visibility is real (scan events + exception reporting), not just a spreadsheet after the fact.

If your team is debating whether to pause orders, pull forward inventory, or re-time inbound, don’t let the dock be the decision-maker.

Schedule a quick Inbound Volatility Review with Doug Draper to pressure-test your landing plan, capacity assumptions, and execution workflow, so you can adapt without losing control.

Contact Doug Draper, Director of Business Development: doug@inlandstar.com | 559-512-6304 | www.inlandstar.com

Policy may change overnight. Inventory still needs a place to land.